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financial · Revised FADP · FINMA AI guidance · Swiss AI policy

Prediction Markets / Event Contracts

Resolution disputes need stranger-verifiable refusal receipts — not Discord screenshots

—CFTC event contracts + Kalshi/Polymarket scale

Regulatory exposure — commonly overlooked:
Market operator resolves ambiguous outcome — operator owns litigation, needs proof of human gate. · Swiss reinsurance hub — Munich Re, Swiss Re need asymmetry data with Swiss privacy compliance.

TAM / Exposure

$4B+/mo volume · Robinhood $156M/qtr event contracts

Insurance lines

E&O · Political risk

Exhibit authority

Switzerland FINMA AI Pack — Event Contract Resolution + Refusal Pack

Global leaders

Kalshi · Polymarket · Robinhood · Crypto.com · FINMA · Swiss Re · Munich Re · UBS

Resolution fights

Receipt at resolve decision — third party can verify without operator login.

Cross-platform arb

Conflicting prices across Kalshi/Polymarket — audit trail for compliance.

Retail bettors

Impulse bets at 2am — bind before payout release.

[Switzerland] Reinsurance capital

Geneva/Zurich reinsurers price AI risk — actuarial feed jurisdiction-scoped.

[Switzerland] Banking secrecy

Swiss bank AI — FINMA documentation expectations exceed EU for trading AI.

[Text / Chat] Modality hook

Baseline — all frameworks apply to text decisions.

Operator rail — clear-before-wire on resolve market / release payout. 60s HOLD demo → · Payout gate → · Volume pricing → · Clauses →

7 mandate layers (live)

Regulatory Clock Countdown to operative regulatory deadline — NAIC adoption, GSE mandate, EU transposition. Open →

Domain Classifier Industry-specific SAFE/CRISIS/VIOLATION with regulatory framework mapping. Open →

Exhibit / Filing Pack Regulator-ready external validation — NAIC Exhibit D, Fannie QC, EU FRIA, FDA Part 11. Open →

Mandate Registry Enroll deployers/insureds under vertical-specific governance mandate. Open →

Bind / Action Gate ALLOW/BLOCK before consequential action — bind policy, sell loan, deactivate worker. Open →

Compliance Certificate Deployer-facing downloadable cert — forward to counsel, auditor, regulator. Open →

Actuarial / Risk Feed Anonymized asymmetry signals for pricing, reserving, reinsurance correlation. Open →

Run prediction_markets demo Regulatory calendar Download exhibit pack Verify independently