LIVE|UTC —
SYNC

← Mandate Registry · 7 mandate layers · prediction_markets

financial · Privacy Act reforms · APRA CPS 234 · ASIC AI guidance

Prediction Markets / Event Contracts

Resolution disputes need stranger-verifiable refusal receipts — not Discord screenshots

CFTC event contracts + Kalshi/Polymarket scale
Regulatory exposure — commonly overlooked:
Market operator resolves ambiguous outcome — operator owns litigation, needs proof of human gate. · APRA expects bank AI incident documentation within 72h — receipt enables notification.

TAM / Exposure

$4B+/mo volume · Robinhood $156M/qtr event contracts

Insurance lines

E&O · Political risk

Exhibit authority

Australia APRA AI Pack — Event Contract Resolution + Refusal Pack

Global leaders

Kalshi · Polymarket · Robinhood · Crypto.com · APRA · Commonwealth Bank · BHP · OAIC

Resolution fights

Receipt at resolve decision — third party can verify without operator login.

Cross-platform arb

Conflicting prices across Kalshi/Polymarket — audit trail for compliance.

Retail bettors

Impulse bets at 2am — bind before payout release.

[Australia] Mining + AI

Australia resource sector AI — WHS obligations for automated safety decisions.

[Australia] Insurance pool

APRA general insurance AI pricing scrutiny — asymmetry feed relevant.

[Text / Chat] Modality hook

Baseline — all frameworks apply to text decisions.

Operator rail — clear-before-wire on resolve market / release payout. 60s HOLD demo → · Payout gate → · Volume pricing → · Clauses →

7 mandate layers (live)

Regulatory Clock Countdown to operative regulatory deadline — NAIC adoption, GSE mandate, EU transposition. Open →
Domain Classifier Industry-specific SAFE/CRISIS/VIOLATION with regulatory framework mapping. Open →
Exhibit / Filing Pack Regulator-ready external validation — NAIC Exhibit D, Fannie QC, EU FRIA, FDA Part 11. Open →
Mandate Registry Enroll deployers/insureds under vertical-specific governance mandate. Open →
Bind / Action Gate ALLOW/BLOCK before consequential action — bind policy, sell loan, deactivate worker. Open →
Compliance Certificate Deployer-facing downloadable cert — forward to counsel, auditor, regulator. Open →
Actuarial / Risk Feed Anonymized asymmetry signals for pricing, reserving, reinsurance correlation. Open →
Run prediction_markets demo Regulatory calendar Download exhibit pack Verify independently